What May Cause Conviction to be a Hit?
Castle survived for many years in the timeslot
Under the new leadership, ABC is supposedly heading in a direction that includes more procedurals. Only one was picked up this season, but it was placed in the right timeslot, where Castle lived for eight seasons. ABC's procedural audience is used to watching TV at that time, so they may tune in for Conviction.
Dancing with the Stars lead-in
Where Conviction has a bigger advantage over Castle is that while Castle had a male lead, Conviction has a female lead, making it more compatible with lead-in Dancing with the Stars. While not a huge hit, DWTS gets solid ratings, which makes it a good place to launch a new show.
What May Cause Conviction to be a Miss for ABC?
Competition
When Castle was at its best (based on Spotted Ratings' Plus ratings), in the 2010-11 season, its competition was the first season of Hawaii Five-0 on CBS, and the failures of Chase and Law & Order: LA, plus decently rated Harry's Law on NBC. Conviction faces tougher competition with the third season of solidly rated Scorpion from CBS and the recipient of NBC's largest lead-in, Timeless, both of which are procedurals. Conviction can just hope that those two shows are too male-skewing to affect it much.
Fewer trailer views
Notorious is in last place in terms of trailer views among the new ABC fall shows, but Conviction isn't performing much better. Are people unaware the show exists or uninterested? Either way, not good for Conviction. That information can be found here.
What to Expect for Conviction?
I think that the lead-in of Dancing will have the biggest effect on Conviction. I don't expect especially high ratings, but I think it can get stable ratings.
Which factors do you think will be most in play in causing Conviction to be a hit or a miss? Leave your thoughts in the comments!
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