So, after some fooling around with the numbers (actually more than some, more like a lot), I've decided to take a new approach to tracking the relationship between a show's ad rate and its rating. Whereas last season I dealt solely with A18-49 numbers, I'm going to discard that this year. That's right, we're moving away from A18-49. Well, kind of.
You see, last season some inferences had to be made, such as adjusting what the expected A18-49 Big 4 non-sports league average would be based on the ad rates declines, and it just got complicated. And when ad rates rise, that doesn't necessarily mean that they actually expect the show to rise in raw numbers.
This is where the "PLUS" metric comes in. Ad rates more or less are staying the same as the years go on, just as PLUS stays the same (a 100 Plus might have meant a different raw number back in the day, but it was still a 100 Plus).
So really, not a ton has changed, it's just the way it's being presented that has changed. So if a show is at 72% of the ad rate league average (again, Big 4 non-sports), the expectation in a direct correlation would be that it hits 72% of the A18-49 league average, which can be translated into a 72 PLUS. And that would be what I would be presenting, not say a 1.02 based on an expected league average that may or may not exist.
I hope you can follow this, and if you have any questions please leave them in the comments below, and to follow shortly will be the estimated expected PLUS numbers.